Page 10 - การทำนายผลผลิตข้าวและข้าวโพดเนื่องมาจากการเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพอากาศที่รุนแรง บริเวณพื้นที่สูงลุ่มน้ำแม่แจ่ม Crop Yield Projection at Mae Cham Sub Basin under Extreme Climate Change.

ห้องสมุดกรมพัฒนาที่ดิน

Abstract

A study on Crop Yield Projection at Mae Cham Sub Basin under Extreme Climate Change

has been completed since October 2017 to September 2020. 422 Sampling questionnaires

were collected from farmers and analyzed together with from the meteorological data by means
of the PRECIS mathematical model such as max-min temperature, rainfall, wind speed,

relative humidity and solar radiation. All data has been predicted rice and maize yield production

in 2030 and 2060. The AquaCrop model version 5 can project yield production scenario as
the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). There are four scenario platforms: RCP2.6,

RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. This project is going to focus RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios that

RCP6.0 scenario is a moderate greenhouse gas emissions and RCP8.5 scenarios is a high levels
of greenhouse gas emissions.

The result shows that rice and maize yields in 2030 and 2060 compare to base line
year 2018-2020 significant different. Almost data of crop yields show higher yield than lower

yield. The average rice yield in the base line year is 623 kilograms/rai but the yields in 2030

and 2060 by means of RCP6.0 scenario, the average rice yield is 635 and 682 kilograms/rai
as an increase of 1.85 and 9.47 percentages respectively. The RCP8.5 scenarios the average

rice yield is 601 kilograms/rai as 3.54 percentages decreasing in 2030 but 717 kilograms/rai
as 15 percentages increasing in 2060 respectively. Whereas, the average maize yield in the

base line year is 872 kilograms/rai. The RCP6.0 scenario projects in 2030 and 2060 that the

average maize yield is 879 and 896 kilograms/rai as an increase of 0.87 and 2.76 percentages,
respectively. The RCP8.5 scenarios the average maize yield is 883 and 900 kilograms/rai as a

1.27 and 3.24 percentage increasing respectively. The AquaCrop model projection by means

of Paired T-test consists of 2 groups in RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios among 12 categories, 6
pairs of rice yields and 6 pairs of maize yields. The result is 10 pairs that show 99 percentages

significant differences. Two paired t-test show non-significant different between base line

year and 2030 (RCP6.0 scenario). The last comparative is base line and 2030 (RCP8.5 scenario).
Finally concluded that rice and maize yields production in the Mae Cham River Basin tends to

increase in the near future as extremely climate change condition.

Keywords: Rice production, Maize production, Extremely climate change, AquaCrop